Value bet: Millwall to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMillwall to win ✓58% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.64
Stoke City vs Millwall preview and prediction
The match
Millwall travel to Bet365 Stadium in the Championship on Tuesday 21 April (19:45 WAT) to face Stoke City. Stoke City are 3rd with 29 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Millwall sit 16th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Stoke City's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Derby 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Millwall's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with West Brom 0–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Millwall arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.9 for Stoke City and 1.6 for Millwall. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Stoke City 23%, draw 19%, Millwall 58%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Millwall to win at 1.91 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Stoke City 0–1 Millwall. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Stoke City23%fair 4.33 · @3.75
Draw19%fair 5.19 · @3.55
Millwall58%fair 1.74 · @1.91
2.53Expected goals
0.89Stoke City xG
1.64Millwall xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–112%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Stoke City 0.9 – 1.6 Millwall expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Millwall to win✓
58%
1.74
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Millwall / FT Millwall✓
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.64
–
Form
Stoke City – last 6
LWLDWD
6 Apr
@ Derby
0–2
L
3 Apr
vs Sheffield Wednesday
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Preston
1–3
L
10 Mar
vs Ipswich
3–3
D
25 Feb
vs Oxford United
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Leicester
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Millwall – last 6
DLWWWW
10 Apr
@ West Brom
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Norwich
1–2
L
3 Apr
@ Middlesbrough
2–1
W
10 Mar
vs Derby
1–0
W
7 Mar
@ Hull City
3–1
W
25 Feb
vs Birmingham
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stoke City and Millwall.
What is the prediction for Stoke City vs Millwall?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Stoke City vs Millwall?
On our numbers Stoke City have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Millwall 58%.
How many goals will there be in Stoke City vs Millwall?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Millwall?
Our predicted score is Stoke City 0–1 Millwall, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Stoke City vs Millwall?
Stoke City vs Millwall (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Bet365 Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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