Southampton vs Bristol City preview and prediction
The match
Bristol City travel to St. Mary's Stadium in the Championship on Tuesday 21 April (19:45 WAT) to face Southampton. Southampton are 7th with 24 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Bristol City sit 17th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Southampton's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Blackburn 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bristol City's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Sheffield Utd 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Southampton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.1 for Southampton and 0.7 for Bristol City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Southampton 70%, draw 21%, Bristol City 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Southampton 2–0 Bristol City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Southampton70%fair 1.44 · @1.42
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @4.35
Bristol City10%fair 10.18 · @7.30
2.83Expected goals
2.14Southampton xG
0.70Bristol City xG
53%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–013%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Southampton 2.1 – 0.7 Bristol City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✗
70%
1.44
1.42
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.48
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✗
46%
2.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.45
–
Form
Southampton – last 6
WWWDWW
14 Apr
vs Blackburn
3–0
W
7 Apr
@ Wrexham
5–1
W
18 Mar
vs Norwich
1–0
W
11 Mar
@ West Brom
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Fulham
1–0
W
24 Feb
vs QPR
5–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bristol City – last 6
WWLDLW
6 Apr
vs Sheffield Utd
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Charlton
2–1
W
10 Mar
@ Leicester
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Port Vale
0–0
D
27 Feb
vs Watford
1–2
L
24 Feb
@ Blackburn
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Bristol City.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Bristol City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Southampton vs Bristol City?
On our numbers Southampton have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bristol City 10%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Bristol City?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Bristol City?
Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Bristol City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Bristol City?
Southampton vs Bristol City (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at St. Mary's Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Oxford United0
Coventry5
Leicester2
Hull City2