Value bet: Derby to win @ 3.70 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNorwich to win ✓46% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.02
Norwich vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
Norwich host Derby in the Championship on Tuesday 21 April, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Carrow Road. Norwich are 12th with 21 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Derby sit 23rd on 10 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Norwich's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Millwall 2–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Derby's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Stoke City 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Norwich and 1.2 for Derby. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Norwich 46%, draw 21%, Derby 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Derby to win at 3.70 – 33% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Norwich 1–1 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Norwich46%fair 2.17 · @1.96
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.50
Derby33%fair 3.01 · @3.70
2.71Expected goals
1.49Norwich xG
1.21Derby xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: Norwich 1.5 – 1.2 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Norwich to win✓
46%
2.17
1.96
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Norwich / FT Norwich✓
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.02
–
Form
Norwich – last 6
WDLWLW
6 Apr
@ Millwall
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Portsmouth
1–1
D
18 Mar
@ Southampton
0–1
L
11 Mar
vs Sheffield Utd
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Leeds
0–3
L
28 Feb
@ Leicester
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
WLWLWL
6 Apr
vs Stoke City
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ Coventry
2–3
L
16 Mar
@ Portsmouth
1–0
W
10 Mar
@ Millwall
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Blackburn
3–1
W
24 Feb
@ Hull City
2–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Norwich and Derby.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Norwich vs Derby?
On our numbers Norwich have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Derby 33%.
How many goals will there be in Norwich vs Derby?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Norwich vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Norwich 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Norwich vs Derby?
Norwich vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Carrow Road.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Oxford United0
Coventry5
Leicester2
Hull City2