Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Derby to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerby to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceDerby or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.64
Derby vs Stoke City preview and prediction
The match
Derby host Stoke City in the Championship on Monday 6 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Pride Park. Derby are 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Stoke City sit 3rd on 29 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Derby's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Coventry 2–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Stoke City's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Derby and 0.7 for Stoke City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derby 63%, draw 25%, Stoke City 12%.
Safer route: Derby or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Derby to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Derby or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Derby 1–0 Stoke City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derby63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.50
Stoke City12%fair 8.50 · @4.10
2.57Expected goals
1.87Derby xG
0.71Stoke City xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Derby 1.9 – 0.7 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derby to win✓
63%
1.58
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Derby or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.33
Half-time result
Derby ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derby / FT Derby✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.64
–
Form
Derby – last 6
LWLWLL
3 Apr
@ Coventry
2–3
L
16 Mar
@ Portsmouth
1–0
W
10 Mar
@ Millwall
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Blackburn
3–1
W
24 Feb
@ Hull City
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ Watford
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Stoke City – last 6
WLDWDL
3 Apr
vs Sheffield Wednesday
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Preston
1–3
L
10 Mar
vs Ipswich
3–3
D
25 Feb
vs Oxford United
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Leicester
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Fulham
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Stoke City.
Our pick is Derby or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
On our numbers Derby have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Stoke City 12%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Stoke City?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–0 Stoke City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Oxford United2
Sheffield Wednesday1
Leicester1
Ipswich2