Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
2
Value bet: Excelsior to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSparta Rotterdam to win ✗43% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.34
Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior preview and prediction
The match
Sparta Rotterdam host Excelsior in the Eredivisie on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 13:30 (WAT) at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel. Sparta Rotterdam are 12th with 12 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Excelsior sit 15th on 11 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sparta Rotterdam's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to Telstar 1–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Excelsior's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Utrecht 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.6 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.5 for Excelsior. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations.
Value angle: Excelsior to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 67% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 Excelsior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sparta Rotterdam43%fair 2.32 · @2.04
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.90
Excelsior36%fair 2.79 · @3.10
3.09Expected goals
1.63Sparta Rotterdam xG
1.46Excelsior xG
67%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Sparta Rotterdam 1.6 – 1.5 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sparta Rotterdam to win✗
43%
2.32
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.49
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.65
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.57
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sparta Rotterdam / FT Sparta Rotterdam✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.34
–
Form
Sparta Rotterdam – last 5
LDDLD
22 Apr
@ Telstar
1–4
L
5 Apr
@ NAC Breda
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ AZ Alkmaar
1–3
L
17 Feb
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Excelsior – last 5
WDDLL
26 Apr
vs Utrecht
5–0
W
12 Apr
@ PEC Zwolle
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Heracles
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Feyenoord
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Fortuna Sittard
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior.
What is the prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
On our numbers Sparta Rotterdam have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Excelsior 36%.
How many goals will there be in Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
NAC Breda3
FC Volendam1
Heracles1