Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.38 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.38Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✗64% · @1.34
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓85% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.10
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.12
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda preview and prediction
The match
The Eredivisie sees AZ Alkmaar take on NAC Breda on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT) at AFAS Stadion.
Form guide
AZ Alkmaar's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with GO Ahead Eagles 0–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
NAC Breda's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Fortuna Sittard 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
AZ Alkmaar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.2 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.0 for NAC Breda. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 65% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AZ Alkmaar 64%, draw 20%, NAC Breda 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 NAC Breda. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AZ Alkmaar64%fair 1.55 · @1.34
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @5.30
NAC Breda15%fair 6.52 · @7.40
3.21Expected goals
2.21AZ Alkmaar xG
1.00NAC Breda xG
59%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 2.2 – 1.0 NAC Breda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✗
64%
1.55
1.34
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.83
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
10.12
–
Form
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
DDLLWW
23 Apr
@ GO Ahead Eagles
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Shakhtar Donetsk
2–2
D
9 Apr
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ Groningen
0–3
L
19 Mar
@ Sparta Praha
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Heracles
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
NAC Breda – last 5
DDLDL
12 Apr
@ Fortuna Sittard
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Sparta Rotterdam
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ GO Ahead Eagles
0–6
L
8 Mar
vs Feyenoord
3–3
D
27 Feb
@ Telstar
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda.
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and NAC Breda 15%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2–1 NAC Breda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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