Heerenveen host Ajax in the Eredivisie on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 13:30 (WAT) at Abe Lenstra Stadion. Heerenveen are 6th with 21 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Ajax sit 3rd on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Heerenveen's last 4: WWDW Most recently they beat FC Volendam 2–0 away. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.6 for Heerenveen and 1.9 for Ajax. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 69% and both teams to score at 67%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Heerenveen 35%, draw 19%, Ajax 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.30.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Heerenveen 1–2 Ajax. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Heerenveen35%fair 2.85 · @2.78
Draw19%fair 5.39 · @4.10
Ajax46%fair 2.15 · @2.12
3.46Expected goals
1.59Heerenveen xG
1.87Ajax xG
67%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
0–25%
From our goals model: Heerenveen 1.6 – 1.9 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✗
46%
2.15
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✗
81%
1.23
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.50
1.30
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.95
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
36%
2.75
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.45
–
Form
Heerenveen – last 4
WWDW
3 May
@ FC Volendam
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Heracles
4–1
W
22 Mar
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs PEC Zwolle
4–2
W
3.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Ajax – last 2
DD
22 Mar
@ Feyenoord
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heerenveen and Ajax.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Ajax?
On our numbers Heerenveen have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ajax 46%.
How many goals will there be in Heerenveen vs Ajax?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs Ajax?
Our predicted score is Heerenveen 1–2 Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Heerenveen vs Ajax?
Heerenveen vs Ajax (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
NAC Breda3
FC Volendam1
Heracles1