Cup · Bulgaria
Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction & analysis
Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Lokomotiv Sofia to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Vihren 1.8 – 3.2 Lokomotiv Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lokomotiv Sofia travel as clear favourites – 62% to win, against 15% for Vihren.
Vihren have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Lokomotiv Sofia have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded. Vihren come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 5.0 goals (1.8 for Vihren, 3.2 for Lokomotiv Sofia). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–3 (7%), 1–2 (6%), 2–3 (6%).
Our pick is Lokomotiv Sofia or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Lokomotiv Sofia to win at 1.75 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lokomotiv Sofia to win ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Lokomotiv Sofia or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.55 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 96% | 1.04 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Half-time result | Lokomotiv Sofia ahead at half-time ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lokomotiv Sofia / FT Lokomotiv Sofia ✗ | 45% | 2.23 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–3 ✗ | 7% | 15.03 | – |
Form
Vihren – last 6
| 9 Oct | @ Yantra 2019 | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Botev Novi Pazar | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Nesebar | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | @ Sportist Svoge | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Dobrudzha | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | @ Montana | 4–1 | W |
Lokomotiv Sofia – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Spartak Varna | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs CSKA Sofia | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Cherno More Varna | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Ludogorets | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | @ Dunav Ruse | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vihren and Lokomotiv Sofia.
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Ludogorets3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our pick is Lokomotiv Sofia or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
On our numbers Vihren have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lokomotiv Sofia 62%.
How many goals will there be in Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
When is Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia (Cup) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 10:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.