Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.91
Penarol vs Progreso preview and prediction
The match
Progreso travel to face Penarol in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 10 October (22:30 WAT). Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Progreso sit 7th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Racing Montevideo 1–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Progreso's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Liverpool Montevideo 2–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.9 for Penarol and 0.5 for Progreso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penarol 72%, draw 20%, Progreso 8%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penarol to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Penarol 1–0 Progreso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol72%fair 1.40 · @1.40
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @4.40
Progreso8%fair 12.34 · @7.00
2.44Expected goals
1.94Penarol xG
0.50Progreso xG
48%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–016%
3–011%
0–09%
1–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.9 – 0.5 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
72%
1.40
1.40
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.08
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.91
–
Form
Penarol – last 6
WDWDWW
4 Oct
@ Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
1 Oct
@ Atletico Torque
1–1
D
26 Sep
vs Boston River
2–1
W
24 Sep
@ Danubio
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Cerro
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Albion FC
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 6
LWWLLW
3 Oct
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–3
L
26 Sep
vs Racing Montevideo
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Boston River
2–1
W
16 Sep
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Cerro
1–3
L
7 Sep
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Progreso.
Our pick is Penarol to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Penarol vs Progreso?
On our numbers Penarol have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Progreso 8%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Progreso?
Penarol vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
