Wednesday, 11 November 2026 Results recordAccuracyHow it works18+ · Bet responsibly
Today's tips
Taça De Portugal · Portugal

Tondela

WWWWL
0–0
FTAET 2–0

Alverca

WWWLD

Tondela vs Alverca prediction & analysis

71%
Footrivo pick

Both teams to score

Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗

7/10Rating
1.75Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultAlverca to win ✗50% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗71% · @1.75
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–3 ✗5% · fair 18.33

Tondela vs Alverca preview and prediction

The match

Alverca travel to face Tondela in the Taça De Portugal on Sunday 18 October (15:00 WAT).

Form guide

Tondela's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Torreense 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Alverca's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Famalicao 4–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.

Head to head

The last meeting, on 13 February 2026, finished Tondela 1–1 Alverca.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 6.0 goals: 2.6 for Tondela and 3.4 for Alverca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score in 71% of our simulations.

Betting angles

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 71% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.40, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tondela 2–3 Alverca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Tondela28%fair 3.58 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.10
Alverca50%fair 2.00 · @2.10
6.00Expected goals
2.65Tondela xG
3.35Alverca xG
71%Both score
94%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–35%
2–25%
3–35%
2–45%
3–24%
1–34%

From our goals model: Tondela 2.6 – 3.4 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAlverca to win ✗50%2.002.10 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78%1.281.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗71%1.401.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗98%1.02–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗94%1.07–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗85%1.18–
Half-time resultAlverca ahead at half-time ✗44%2.27–
Half-time / full-timeHT Alverca / FT Alverca ✗35%2.86–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–3 ✗5%18.33–

Form

Tondela – last 6

WWWWLL
10 Octvs Torreense1–0W
19 Sep@ Imortal Albufeira5–1W
12 Sep@ Portimonense2–0W
5 Sepvs FC Porto B3–0W
28 Aug@ União de Leiria0–2L
21 Augvs Academica0–2L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Alverca – last 6

WWWLDL
12 Oct@ Famalicao4–1W
19 Sepvs Rio Ave1–0W
12 Sep@ Nacional3–1W
5 Sepvs SC Braga1–2L
29 Augvs Santa Clara1–1D
22 Aug@ Sporting CP1–3L
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

13 Feb 2026Tondela v Alverca1–1
Tondela vs Alverca head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Brito0 Vitória de Sernache1 132%3.00X22%3.00246%2.10 GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.62 ✗
FT Fátima1 Academico Viseu0 114%9.00X17%4.80269%1.25 GGBoth teams to score 62%@1.91 ✗
FT Lusitânia Lourosa2 Os Limianos1 176%1.12X17%6.5027%17.00 GGBoth teams to score 57%@2.45 ✓
FT Mafra2 Santa Clara2 AET 3–2 110%6.50X21%3.80269%1.40 2Santa Clara to win 69%@1.40 ✗
FT Salgueiros1 Estoril1 Pens 1–4 110%7.50X21%3.90269%1.36 2Estoril to win 69%@1.36 ✗
FT Paredes1 Famalicao0 111%6.00X24%3.75266%1.44 GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.80 ✗
FT CF Os Belenenses3 Arouca3 AET 3–4 119%4.60X19%3.90263%1.55 2Arouca to win 63%@1.55 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tondela vs Alverca?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win Tondela vs Alverca?

On our numbers Tondela have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alverca 50%.

How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Alverca?

We expect about 6.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Alverca?

Our predicted score is Tondela 2–3 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 6.0 goals in total.

When is Tondela vs Alverca?

Tondela vs Alverca (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.