Value bet: Racing Montevideo to win @ 3.60 – our chance 29% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✓47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.49
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Racing Montevideo take on Penarol on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estadio Centenario. Racing Montevideo are 6th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Racing Montevideo's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Progreso 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Penarol's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Atletico Torque 1–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 July 2026, finished Racing Montevideo 1–1 Penarol. Across their last 2 meetings Racing Montevideo have won 1, Penarol 0, with 1 draw and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Racing Montevideo and 1.3 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Racing Montevideo 29%, draw 23%, Penarol 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Racing Montevideo to win at 3.60 – 29% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.89, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Racing Montevideo 1–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Racing Montevideo29%fair 3.40 · @3.60
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Penarol47%fair 2.12 · @2.05
2.30Expected goals
0.97Racing Montevideo xG
1.33Penarol xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.0 – 1.3 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penarol 47%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
