Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Gardens of the HippodromeDanubio vs Cerro Largo prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.99 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
Value bet: Cerro Largo to win @ 3.75 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Danubio 1.1 – 1.0 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Danubio hold the edge on home soil with a 41% chance of winning, against 34% for Cerro Largo.
Danubio have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Cerro Largo have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.1 for Danubio, 1.0 for Cerro Largo). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 50% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is close to our fair price of 1.99. For a bigger price, Cerro Largo to win at 3.75 is our value angle (34% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Danubio to win ✓ | 41% | 2.43 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.53 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Danubio / FT Danubio ✓ | 22% | 4.59 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.20 | – |
Form
Danubio – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Defensor Sporting | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Sep | vs Penarol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Wanderers | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Juventud | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Penarol | 0–4 | L |
| 2 Sep | @ Atletico Torque | 0–2 | L |
Cerro Largo – last 6
| 30 Sep | vs Rentistas | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Club Nacional | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Central Espanol | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs Defensor Sporting | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | @ Atletico Torque | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Liverpool Montevideo | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Cerro Largo.
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Danubio have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cerro Largo 34%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
Danubio vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Gardens of the Hippodrome.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.