FA Cup · England
Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.75 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
Value bet: Plymouth Parkway to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Plymouth Parkway 1.6 – 1.4 Horsham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Plymouth Parkway hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 35% for Horsham.
Plymouth Parkway have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Horsham have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. Plymouth Parkway come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.6 for Plymouth Parkway, 1.4 for Horsham). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 57% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.65 is close to our fair price of 1.75. For a bigger price, Plymouth Parkway to win at 2.50 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Plymouth Parkway to win ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | 2.50 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 40% | 2.52 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Plymouth Parkway / FT Plymouth Parkway ✓ | 25% | 3.97 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✓ | 9% | 11.21 | – |
Form
Plymouth Parkway – last 6
| 29 Sep | @ Gloucester City | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Bath City | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Frome Town | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Frome Town | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Sholing | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Gosport Borough | 3–1 | W |
Horsham – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Chelmsford City | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | @ Walton & Hersham | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Chesham United | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Folkestone Invicta | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Dagenham & Redbridge | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Farnham Town | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Plymouth Parkway and Horsham.
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Real Bedford3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham?
On our numbers Plymouth Parkway have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Horsham 35%.
How many goals will there be in Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham?
Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.