Vanuatu vs New Caledonia prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Vanuatu 1.5 – 1.6 New Caledonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Vanuatu and New Caledonia on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 41% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Vanuatu have taken 7 points from their last 3 matches (2W 1D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. New Caledonia have 3 points from their last 3 (1W 0D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. Vanuatu come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.5 for Vanuatu, 1.6 for New Caledonia). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.60 is better than our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | New Caledonia to win ✗ | 41% | 2.41 | 2.30 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.21 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 38% | 2.61 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT New Caledonia / FT New Caledonia ✗ | 25% | 4.08 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.51 | – |
Form
Vanuatu – last 3
| 24 Sep | @ Solomon Islands | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Sep | @ Fiji | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Jun | vs Fiji | 2–1 | W |
New Caledonia – last 3
| 24 Sep | @ Papua New Guinea | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Sep | vs Solomon Islands | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Mar | vs Jamaica | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vanuatu and New Caledonia.
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What is the prediction for Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
On our numbers Vanuatu have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and New Caledonia 41%.
How many goals will there be in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
When is Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.