Canada vs Chile prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Canada to win @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Canada 1.8 – 0.6 Chile expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Canada are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 11% for Chile.
Canada have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. Chile have 6 points from their last 4 (2W 0D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.8 for Canada, 0.6 for Chile). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Canada to win at 1.70 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Canada to win ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Canada or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Canada ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Canada / FT Canada ✓ | 40% | 2.47 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 16% | 6.17 | – |
Form
Canada – last 6
| 4 Jul | vs Morocco | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Jun | @ South Africa | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Jun | @ Switzerland | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Jun | vs Qatar | 6–0 | W |
| 12 Jun | vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Jun | vs Rep. Of Ireland | 1–1 | D |
Chile – last 4
| 9 Jun | @ Congo DR | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Jun | @ Portugal | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Mar | @ New Zealand | 1–4 | L |
| 27 Mar | vs Cape Verde Islands | 4–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Canada and Chile.
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Syria1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Canada vs Chile?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Canada vs Chile?
On our numbers Canada have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Chile 11%.
How many goals will there be in Canada vs Chile?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Canada vs Chile?
Canada vs Chile (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at BMO Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.