Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: St. Lucia to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSt. Lucia to win ✓59% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.60
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.87
Guadeloupe vs St. Lucia preview and prediction
The match
St. Lucia travel to BFA Technical Centre in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday 5 October (20:00 WAT) to face Guadeloupe.
Form guide
Guadeloupe's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to St. Lucia 0–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
St. Lucia's last 4: WWLL Most recently they beat Guadeloupe 3–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 October 2026, finished St. Lucia 3–0 Guadeloupe.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.4 for Guadeloupe and 2.3 for St. Lucia. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Guadeloupe 24%, draw 18%, St. Lucia 59%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.60.
Value angle: St. Lucia to win at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Guadeloupe 1–2 St. Lucia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guadeloupe24%fair 4.18 · @3.40
Draw18%fair 5.71 · @3.70
St. Lucia59%fair 1.71 · @1.91
3.67Expected goals
1.39Guadeloupe xG
2.28St. Lucia xG
65%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
0–27%
2–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Guadeloupe 1.4 – 2.3 St. Lucia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Guadeloupe vs St. Lucia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Guadeloupe vs St. Lucia?
On our numbers Guadeloupe have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 18% and St. Lucia 59%.
How many goals will there be in Guadeloupe vs St. Lucia?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guadeloupe vs St. Lucia?
Our predicted score is Guadeloupe 1–2 St. Lucia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Guadeloupe vs St. Lucia?
Guadeloupe vs St. Lucia (CONCACAF Nations League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at BFA Technical Centre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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