Value bet: FC Thun to win @ 2.75 – our chance 50% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +38%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Thun to win ✗50% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗68% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.23
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split preview and prediction
The match
FC Thun host HNK Hajduk Split in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stockhorn Arena. FC Thun are 20th with 3 points from 3 games (in the bottom half), while HNK Hajduk Split sit 13th on 6 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FC Thun's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with FC Schaffhausen 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
HNK Hajduk Split's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat NK Varazdin 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
HNK Hajduk Split arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.3 for FC Thun and 1.7 for HNK Hajduk Split. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations.
Value angle: FC Thun to win at 2.75 – 50% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 68% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.47, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Thun 2–1 HNK Hajduk Split. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Thun50%fair 2.00 · @2.75
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.40
HNK Hajduk Split29%fair 3.45 · @2.40
4.00Expected goals
2.28FC Thun xG
1.72HNK Hajduk Split xG
68%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
3–16%
1–26%
3–25%
From our goals model: FC Thun 2.3 – 1.7 HNK Hajduk Split expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Thun to win✗
50%
2.00
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
68%
1.47
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
FC Thun ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Thun / FT FC Thun✗
32%
3.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.23
–
Form
FC Thun – last 6
DLLWWL
18 Oct
@ FC Schaffhausen
1–1
D
15 Oct
@ Twente
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ FC Zurich
2–4
L
3 Oct
vs SC Kriens
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ FC Vaduz
2–1
W
16 Sep
vs Servette FC
2–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
HNK Hajduk Split – last 6
WWWLWW
18 Oct
vs NK Varazdin
1–0
W
15 Oct
vs Ajax
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Dinamo Zagreb
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ HNK Rijeka
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs NK Slaven Belupo
1–0
W
8 Sep
@ Vardarac
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split.
What is the prediction for FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
On our numbers FC Thun have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 21% and HNK Hajduk Split 29%.
How many goals will there be in FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our predicted score is FC Thun 2–1 HNK Hajduk Split, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stockhorn Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
