Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPafos to win ✗63% · @1.62
Double chancePafos or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.12
Pafos vs Riga preview and prediction
The match
Pafos host Riga in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October, with kick-off at 17:45 (WAT) at Stelios Kyriakidis. Pafos are 30th with 1 points from 3 games (in the bottom half), while Riga sit 19th on 3 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Pafos's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Apoel Nicosia 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Riga's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Super Nova 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.2 for Pafos and 1.0 for Riga. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pafos 63%, draw 24%, Riga 14%.
Safer route: Pafos or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pafos to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Pafos 2–0 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pafos63%fair 1.60 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.80
Riga14%fair 7.22 · @5.00
3.20Expected goals
2.20Pafos xG
1.00Riga xG
57%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Pafos 2.2 – 1.0 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pafos to win✗
63%
1.60
1.62
Double chance
Pafos or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Pafos ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pafos / FT Pafos✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
10.12
–
Form
Pafos – last 6
DLWLWD
19 Oct
vs Apoel Nicosia
0–0
D
15 Oct
@ Atalanta
1–3
L
11 Oct
@ Anorthosis
3–1
W
18 Sep
vs AEL
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ AEK Larnaca
1–0
W
7 Sep
vs Olympiakos
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Riga – last 6
WDWWWW
18 Oct
vs Super Nova
2–1
W
15 Oct
vs Kairat Almaty
1–1
D
10 Oct
@ Tukums
2–0
W
3 Oct
@ Aris
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ FS Jelgava
1–0
W
15 Sep
@ Super Nova
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pafos and Riga.
Our pick is Pafos to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
On our numbers Pafos have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Riga 14%.
How many goals will there be in Pafos vs Riga?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pafos vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Pafos 2–0 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Pafos vs Riga?
Pafos vs Riga (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stelios Kyriakidis.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
