Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.35Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtalanta to win ✓68% · @1.35
Double chanceAtalanta or draw ✓88% · @1.08
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.49
Atalanta vs Pafos preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa Conference League sees Atalanta take on Pafos on Thursday 15 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at New Balance Arena. Atalanta are 16th with 4 points from 3 games (in the top half), while Pafos sit 30th on 1 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atalanta's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Venezia 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Pafos's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Anorthosis 3–1 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pafos arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Atalanta and 0.5 for Pafos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atalanta 68%, draw 20%, Pafos 12%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atalanta to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Atalanta 1–0 Pafos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atalanta68%fair 1.47 · @1.35
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @4.80
Pafos12%fair 8.60 · @8.50
2.25Expected goals
1.73Atalanta xG
0.52Pafos xG
46%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–016%
0–011%
1–110%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Atalanta 1.7 – 0.5 Pafos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atalanta to win✓
68%
1.47
1.35
Double chance
Atalanta or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.08
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Atalanta ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta✓
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.49
–
Form
Atalanta – last 6
WLLLWW
12 Oct
vs Venezia
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Juventus
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Cagliari
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ AS Roma
1–2
L
31 Aug
vs Bologna
1–0
W
27 Aug
@ Hapoel Tel Aviv
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Pafos – last 6
WLWDWW
11 Oct
@ Anorthosis
3–1
W
18 Sep
vs AEL
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ AEK Larnaca
1–0
W
7 Sep
vs Olympiakos
0–0
D
3 Sep
@ Omonia Nicosia
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Karmiotissa
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atalanta and Pafos.
Our pick is Atalanta to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Atalanta vs Pafos?
On our numbers Atalanta have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Pafos 12%.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Pafos?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Pafos?
Our predicted score is Atalanta 1–0 Pafos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Atalanta vs Pafos?
Atalanta vs Pafos (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
