Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Atalanta to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAjax to win ✓41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.35
Ajax vs Atalanta preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa Conference League sees Ajax take on Atalanta on Thursday 22 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Johan Cruijff Arena. Ajax are 11th with 6 points from 3 games (in the top half), while Atalanta sit 16th on 4 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ajax's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Groningen 5–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
Atalanta's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to AC Milan 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Ajax arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.0 for Ajax and 2.0 for Atalanta. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ajax 41%, draw 22%, Atalanta 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Atalanta to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Ajax 2–1 Atalanta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ajax41%fair 2.46 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.60
Atalanta37%fair 2.70 · @3.10
4.00Expected goals
2.05Ajax xG
1.95Atalanta xG
66%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
1–17%
2–27%
1–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.0 – 2.0 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
41%
2.46
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✗
34%
2.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.35
–
Form
Ajax – last 6
WLDDWW
18 Oct
@ Groningen
5–2
W
15 Oct
@ HNK Hajduk Split
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
3.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
LWWLLL
18 Oct
@ AC Milan
2–3
L
15 Oct
vs Pafos
3–1
W
12 Oct
vs Venezia
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Juventus
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Cagliari
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ AS Roma
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and Atalanta.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
On our numbers Ajax have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atalanta 37%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Atalanta?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Atalanta?
Ajax vs Atalanta (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
