AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction & analysis
Juventus or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Juventus to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 1.1 – 1.9 Juventus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Juventus shade it despite being away from home – 57% to win, against 21% for AZ Alkmaar.
AZ Alkmaar have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Juventus have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (1.1 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.9 for Juventus). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Juventus or draw at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is better than our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Juventus to win at 1.95 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Juventus to win ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Juventus or draw ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.40 |
| Half-time result | Juventus ahead at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Juventus / FT Juventus ✓ | 36% | 2.79 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✓ | 10% | 10.10 | – |
Form
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Ajax | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Twente | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Oct | @ Ararat-Armenia | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ Cambuur | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Feyenoord | 0–2 | L |
Juventus – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Napoli | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Oct | @ Genoa | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Lecce | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Rennes | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Lazio | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | @ Celta Vigo | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Juventus.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
Our pick is Juventus or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Juventus 57%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.