Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Union St. Gilloise to win @ 3.00 – our chance 44% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +32%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Celta Vigo 1.3 – 1.5 Union St. Gilloise expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Union St. Gilloise shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 34% for Celta Vigo.
Celta Vigo have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Union St. Gilloise have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 2.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. Union St. Gilloise come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.3 for Celta Vigo, 1.5 for Union St. Gilloise). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Union St. Gilloise to win at 3.00 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Union St. Gilloise to win ✓ | 44% | 2.26 | 3.00 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.44 | 1.40 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.39 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Union St. Gilloise / FT Union St. Gilloise ✗ | 25% | 4.01 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.37 | – |
Form
Celta Vigo – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Rayo Vallecano | 0–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Real Betis | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Oct | @ Celtic | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Alaves | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Juventus | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Elche | 0–0 | D |
Union St. Gilloise – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ SK Beveren | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Cercle Brugge | 5–2 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Nijlen | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Real Sociedad | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs OH Leuven | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celta Vigo and Union St. Gilloise.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?
On our numbers Celta Vigo have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union St. Gilloise 44%.
How many goals will there be in Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?
Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Balaídos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.