VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 20 Oct 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultVfB Stuttgart to win ✗41% · @3.10

Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.44

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.60

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction

The match

Atletico Madrid travel to MHP Arena in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October (20:00 WAT) to face VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart are 14th with 7 points from 4 games (in the top half), while Atletico Madrid sit 23rd on 4 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.

Form guide

VfB Stuttgart's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Hamburger SV 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Atletico Madrid's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Espanyol 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Atletico Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.0.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.5 for Atletico Madrid. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations.

Betting angles

Win chances: VfB Stuttgart 41%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.44.
Value angle: VfB Stuttgart to win at 3.10 – 41% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

VfB Stuttgart41%fair 2.46 · @3.10

Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.60

Atletico Madrid37%fair 2.69 · @2.05

3.00Expected goals

1.54VfB Stuttgart xG

1.46Atletico Madrid xG

66%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–111%

2–19%

1–28%

1–08%

0–17%

2–26%

From our goals model: VfB Stuttgart 1.5 – 1.5 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	VfB Stuttgart to win ✗	41%	2.46	3.10 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	78%	1.29	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	66%	1.52	1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	65%	1.55	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	40%	2.52	–
Half-time / full-time	HT VfB Stuttgart / FT VfB Stuttgart ✗	23%	4.27	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.60	–

Form

VfB Stuttgart – last 6

LWWWWL

17 Oct	@ Hamburger SV	0–1	L
14 Oct	@ Slovan Bratislava	3–0	W
10 Oct	@ SC Paderborn 07	2–0	W
1 Oct	vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth	5–0	W
25 Sep	vs 1. FC Heidenheim	3–0	W
19 Sep	vs Borussia Dortmund	0–1	L

2.2Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

0%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid – last 6

WWWWWW

17 Oct	@ Espanyol	1–0	W
13 Oct	vs Manchester United	2–0	W
10 Oct	@ Alaves	2–1	W
20 Sep	vs Real Madrid	2–1	W
16 Sep	vs Osasuna	4–0	W
13 Sep	@ Real Sociedad	3–0	W

2.3Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0

Team

Pts

+15

+13

-1

-5

-1

-1

-1

-5

-1

-5

-6

-6

-6

-6

-7

-12

-4

-6

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

On our numbers VfB Stuttgart have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 37%.

How many goals will there be in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

Our predicted score is VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at MHP Arena.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

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