The UEFA Champions League sees Liverpool take on Villarreal on Tuesday 20 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Anfield. Liverpool are 8th with 9 points from 4 games (in the top half), while Villarreal sit 28th on 3 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Liverpool's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Brentford 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Villarreal's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Elche 0–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.3 goals: 3.3 for Liverpool and 1.9 for Villarreal. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 89% likely and both teams score in 70% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Liverpool 63%, draw 20%, Villarreal 17%.
Both teams to score: yes (70%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 70% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.43, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Liverpool 3–1 Villarreal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Liverpool63%fair 1.58 · @1.50
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @4.40
Villarreal17%fair 5.90 · @5.50
5.25Expected goals
3.34Liverpool xG
1.91Villarreal xG
70%Both score
89%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–16%
3–26%
2–16%
2–25%
4–15%
4–25%
From our goals model: Liverpool 3.3 – 1.9 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool to win✓
63%
1.58
1.50
Double chance
Liverpool or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.43
1.55 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Liverpool ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool / FT Liverpool✗
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
6%
16.05
–
Form
Liverpool – last 6
WWLWWD
17 Oct
@ Brentford
2–1
W
14 Oct
@ Lask Linz
6–3
W
11 Oct
vs Manchester City
0–3
L
20 Sep
@ Bournemouth
1–0
W
15 Sep
vs Tottenham
3–1
W
12 Sep
vs Fulham
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 6
DWLWWL
17 Oct
vs Elche
0–0
D
13 Oct
vs Napoli
3–1
W
10 Oct
@ Real Madrid
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Levante
3–1
W
17 Sep
@ Malaga
3–1
W
14 Sep
vs Real Betis
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool and Villarreal.
What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Liverpool have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Villarreal 17%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
We expect about 5.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 89% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Liverpool 3–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.3 goals in total.
When is Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Liverpool vs Villarreal (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Anfield.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
