Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Bayern München to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBayern München to win ✓45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗67% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.70
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Madrid host Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 3 November, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Metropolitano Stadium. Atletico Madrid are 23rd with 4 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Bayern München sit 13th on 8 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atletico Madrid's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Levante 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bayern München's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Borussia Dortmund 2–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.7 goals a game.
Atletico Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.6 for Atletico Madrid and 1.9 for Bayern München. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Madrid 36%, draw 19%, Bayern München 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.40.
Value angle: Bayern München to win at 2.45 – 45% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Atletico Madrid 1–2 Bayern München. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Madrid36%fair 2.79 · @2.55
Draw19%fair 5.27 · @4.00
Bayern München45%fair 2.21 · @2.45
3.52Expected goals
1.65Atletico Madrid xG
1.88Bayern München xG
66%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–35%
From our goals model: Atletico Madrid 1.6 – 1.9 Bayern München expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayern München to win✓
45%
2.21
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.73
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
36%
2.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayern München / FT Bayern München✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.70
–
Form
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WWDWWW
31 Oct
@ Levante
2–0
W
24 Oct
vs Deportivo La Coruna
1–0
W
20 Oct
@ VfB Stuttgart
1–1
D
17 Oct
@ Espanyol
1–0
W
13 Oct
vs Manchester United
2–0
W
10 Oct
@ Alaves
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Bayern München – last 6
DWWDWD
31 Oct
vs Borussia Dortmund
2–2
D
28 Oct
vs 1. FC Magdeburg
6–1
W
25 Oct
@ SC Freiburg
3–1
W
21 Oct
vs Arsenal
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs RB Leipzig
6–1
W
13 Oct
@ Viking
3–3
D
3.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Madrid and Bayern München.
What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
On our numbers Atletico Madrid have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bayern München 45%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Our predicted score is Atletico Madrid 1–2 Bayern München, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Metropolitano Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
