Millwall host Newcastle in the League Cup on Tuesday 8 September, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at The Den.
Form guide
Millwall's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Bolton 4–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Newcastle's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Bournemouth 2–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Millwall arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.8 for Millwall and 2.2 for Newcastle. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Newcastle to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Millwall 0–2 Newcastle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Millwall12%fair 8.43 · @5.00
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.90
Newcastle69%fair 1.45 · @1.55
3.00Expected goals
0.80Millwall xG
2.20Newcastle xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
0–39%
1–19%
1–37%
From our goals model: Millwall 0.8 – 2.2 Newcastle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle to win✓
69%
1.45
1.55 ▲
Double chance
Newcastle or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Newcastle ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle✗
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.32
–
Form
Millwall – last 6
WLLWWW
5 Sep
vs Bolton
4–0
W
2 Sep
vs Wrexham
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Southampton
1–5
L
25 Aug
@ Cambridge United
1–0
W
22 Aug
vs Norwich
3–0
W
15 Aug
@ Bristol City
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Newcastle – last 6
DWWDDL
5 Sep
vs Bournemouth
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Tottenham
2–0
W
26 Aug
vs West Brom
3–2
W
23 Aug
vs Liverpool
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Strasbourg
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Bayer Leverkusen
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Millwall and Newcastle.
Our pick is Newcastle to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Millwall vs Newcastle?
On our numbers Millwall have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Newcastle 69%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Newcastle?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Newcastle?
Our predicted score is Millwall 0–2 Newcastle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Newcastle?
Millwall vs Newcastle (League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Bournemouth4
Lincoln0
Crystal Palace3
Middlesbrough0
Leyton Orient1
Bradford3
Sunderland1
Hull City0