Value bet: Maceratese to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRecanatese to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.37
Recanatese vs Maceratese preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone F sees Recanatese take on Maceratese on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Nicola Tubaldi. Recanatese are 15th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Maceratese sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Recanatese's last 5: LDWDD Most recently they lost to Lanciano FC 1–4 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Maceratese's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Santegidiese 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Recanatese arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Recanatese and 1.1 for Maceratese. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 47%.
Value angle: Maceratese to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Recanatese 1–1 Maceratese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Recanatese43%fair 2.31 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.10
Maceratese35%fair 2.89 · @3.10
2.36Expected goals
1.27Recanatese xG
1.09Maceratese xG
47%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Recanatese 1.3 – 1.1 Maceratese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Recanatese to win✗
43%
2.31
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Recanatese / FT Recanatese✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.37
–
Form
Recanatese – last 6
LDWDDW
27 Sep
@ Lanciano FC
1–4
L
20 Sep
vs Montecchio Gallo
0–0
D
16 Sep
vs Foligno Calcio
4–1
W
13 Sep
@ Santegidiese
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Pietralunga
0–0
D
17 May
vs Victor San Marino
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Maceratese – last 6
DWLLLL
27 Sep
vs Santegidiese
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Pietralunga
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Ancona
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Atletico Ascoli
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Teramo
0–3
L
3 May
@ Chieti
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Recanatese and Maceratese.
What is the prediction for Recanatese vs Maceratese?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Recanatese vs Maceratese?
On our numbers Recanatese have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Maceratese 35%.
How many goals will there be in Recanatese vs Maceratese?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Recanatese vs Maceratese?
Our predicted score is Recanatese 1–1 Maceratese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Recanatese vs Maceratese?
Recanatese vs Maceratese (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Nicola Tubaldi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
