Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.08 – our chance 55% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAncona to win ✓67% · @1.32
Double chanceAncona or draw ✓85% · fair 1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.08
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.00
Ancona vs Sporting Trestina preview and prediction
The match
Ancona host Sporting Trestina in the Serie D Girone F on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio del Conero. Ancona are 3rd with 21 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Sporting Trestina sit 14th on 11 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Ancona's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Angelana 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sporting Trestina's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Termoli Calcio 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Ancona arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Ancona and 0.7 for Sporting Trestina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.08 – 55% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.49, above our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ancona 1–0 Sporting Trestina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ancona67%fair 1.49 · @1.32
Draw18%fair 5.64 · @5.51
Sporting Trestina15%fair 6.60 · @9.10
2.57Expected goals
1.87Ancona xG
0.70Sporting Trestina xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Ancona 1.9 – 0.7 Sporting Trestina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ancona to win✓
67%
1.49
1.32
Double chance
Ancona or draw✓
85%
1.18
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.08 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.68
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.49
Half-time result
Ancona ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ancona / FT Ancona✓
41%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.00
–
Form
Ancona – last 6
DDWLWD
27 Sep
@ Angelana
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs L'Aquila
2–2
D
16 Sep
@ Maceratese
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Montecchio Gallo
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Notaresco
2–1
W
3 May
vs Notaresco
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sporting Trestina – last 6
WLLDLL
27 Sep
vs Termoli Calcio
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Atletico Ascoli
0–1
L
16 Sep
vs Fossombrone
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Lanciano FC
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Vigor Senigallia
2–5
L
29 Jul
@ Gubbio
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ancona and Sporting Trestina.
What is the prediction for Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.49.
Who will win Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
On our numbers Ancona have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sporting Trestina 15%.
How many goals will there be in Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
Our predicted score is Ancona 1–0 Sporting Trestina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
Ancona vs Sporting Trestina (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio del Conero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
