Serie D Girone F · ItalyAtletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone prediction & analysis
Atletico Ascoli to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.90 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Atletico Ascoli 1.8 – 0.8 Fossombrone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Atletico Ascoli are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 13% for Fossombrone.
Atletico Ascoli have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Fossombrone have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.8 for Atletico Ascoli, 0.8 for Fossombrone). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Atletico Ascoli have won 0, Fossombrone have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Atletico Ascoli to win at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.90 is better than our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico Ascoli to win ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Atletico Ascoli or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Half-time result | Atletico Ascoli ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Atletico Ascoli / FT Atletico Ascoli ✗ | 39% | 2.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.27 | – |
Form
Atletico Ascoli – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Real Giulianova | 2–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Sporting Trestina | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ L'Aquila | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Maceratese | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Angelana | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Pineto | 1–1 | D |
Fossombrone – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Vigor Senigallia | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Lanciano FC | 2–4 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Sporting Trestina | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs L'Aquila | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Real Giulianova | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | @ Cesena | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
| 19 Apr 2026 | Atletico Ascoli v Fossombrone | 1–1 |
Serie D Girone F table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Teramo | 11 | +13 | 26 |
| 2 |  L'Aquila | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ancona | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Foligno Calcio | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 5 |  Vigor Senigallia | 11 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Fossombrone | 11 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 |  Montecchio Gallo | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Notaresco | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real Giulianova | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 |  Atletico Ascoli | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 11 |  Termoli Calcio | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Lanciano FC | 11 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Maceratese | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 |  Sporting Trestina | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 |  Recanatese | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pietralunga | 11 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 |  Santegidiese | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  Angelana | 11 | -9 | 7 |
More Serie D Girone F predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone?
Our pick is Atletico Ascoli to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone?
On our numbers Atletico Ascoli have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fossombrone 13%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone?
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.