Serie D Girone H · ItalyEbolitana vs Gravina prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.26 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Gravina to win @ 2.60 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ebolitana 1.1 – 1.4 Gravina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Gravina shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 33% for Ebolitana.
Ebolitana have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Gravina have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.1 for Ebolitana, 1.4 for Gravina). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.26 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, Gravina to win at 2.60 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Gravina to win ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | 2.60 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.88 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.42 | 1.31 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.69 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Gravina / FT Gravina ✗ | 25% | 4.07 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 9.07 | – |
Form
Ebolitana – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ USD Palmese | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Martina Franca | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Ischia | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Melfi | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Manfredonia | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Bisceglie | 2–1 | W |
Gravina – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Francavilla | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Nardò | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | @ Virtus Francavilla | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Virtus Francavilla | 4–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Real Normanna | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Real Forio 2014 | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ebolitana and Gravina.
Serie D Girone H table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Virtus Francavilla | 11 | +9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Martina Franca | 11 | +9 | 22 |
| 3 |  Brindisi | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gravina | 11 | +7 | 20 |
| 5 |  Turris | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Manfredonia | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 7 |  Gladiator | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 |  Fidelis Andria | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Bisceglie | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  USD Palmese | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Normanna | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Nocerina | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Real Forio 2014 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Melfi | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 |  Ebolitana | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Ischia | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Francavilla | 11 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 |  Nardò | 11 | -9 | 7 |
More Serie D Girone H predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ebolitana vs Gravina?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Ebolitana vs Gravina?
On our numbers Ebolitana have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gravina 44%.
How many goals will there be in Ebolitana vs Gravina?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Ebolitana vs Gravina?
Ebolitana vs Gravina (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.