Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.79 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.79Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNocerina to win ✓66% · @1.79
Double chanceNocerina or draw ✓86% · fair 1.16
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.12
Melfi vs Nocerina preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone H sees Melfi take on Nocerina on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Melfi are 14th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Nocerina sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Melfi's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Ebolitana 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Nocerina's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat USD Palmese 3–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Nocerina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Melfi and 1.9 for Nocerina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Melfi 14%, draw 21%, Nocerina 66%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.89.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nocerina to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.79, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Melfi 0–1 Nocerina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Melfi14%fair 7.20 · @4.36
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.85
Nocerina66%fair 1.53 · @1.79
2.59Expected goals
0.71Melfi xG
1.88Nocerina xG
48%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Melfi 0.7 – 1.9 Nocerina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nocerina to win✓
66%
1.53
1.79 ▲
Double chance
Nocerina or draw✓
86%
1.16
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.89
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.82
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.29
Half-time result
Nocerina ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nocerina / FT Nocerina✓
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.12
–
Form
Melfi – last 5
LWDLL
27 Sep
@ Ebolitana
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Francavilla
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Nardò
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Virtus Francavilla
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Real Normanna
0–2
L
0.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Nocerina – last 6
WLWDWL
27 Sep
vs USD Palmese
3–0
W
20 Sep
@ Bisceglie
1–3
L
16 Sep
vs Ischia
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Manfredonia
2–2
D
6 Sep
vs Ebolitana
2–1
W
3 May
vs Ischia
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melfi and Nocerina.
Our pick is Nocerina to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.79.
Who will win Melfi vs Nocerina?
On our numbers Melfi have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nocerina 66%.
How many goals will there be in Melfi vs Nocerina?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melfi vs Nocerina?
Our predicted score is Melfi 0–1 Nocerina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Melfi vs Nocerina?
Melfi vs Nocerina (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
