Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 56% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNocerina to win ✓65% · @1.64
Double chanceNocerina or draw ✓85% · fair 1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.25
Nocerina vs USD Palmese preview and prediction
The match
USD Palmese travel to face Nocerina in the Serie D Girone H on Sunday 27 September (14:00 WAT). Nocerina are 12th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while USD Palmese sit 10th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nocerina's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Bisceglie 1–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
USD Palmese's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Real Normanna 3–4 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Nocerina and 0.9 for USD Palmese. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 53% and both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 56% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.29. Predicted score: Nocerina 2–0 USD Palmese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nocerina65%fair 1.55 · @1.64
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.45
USD Palmese15%fair 6.80 · @5.24
3.04Expected goals
2.12Nocerina xG
0.91USD Palmese xG
56%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Nocerina 2.1 – 0.9 USD Palmese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nocerina to win✓
65%
1.55
1.64 ▲
Double chance
Nocerina or draw✓
85%
1.17
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.29
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.28
Half-time result
Nocerina ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nocerina / FT Nocerina✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.25
–
Form
Nocerina – last 6
LWDWLL
20 Sep
@ Bisceglie
1–3
L
16 Sep
vs Ischia
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Manfredonia
2–2
D
6 Sep
vs Ebolitana
2–1
W
3 May
vs Ischia
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ Monastir
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
USD Palmese – last 6
LWDLLW
20 Sep
vs Real Normanna
3–4
L
16 Sep
@ Francavilla
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Turris
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Virtus Francavilla
1–3
L
26 Apr
@ Scafatese
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Ischia
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nocerina and USD Palmese.
What is the prediction for Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
On our numbers Nocerina have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and USD Palmese 15%.
How many goals will there be in Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
Our predicted score is Nocerina 2–0 USD Palmese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
Nocerina vs USD Palmese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
