Serie D Girone H · ItalyEbolitana vs Melfi prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Melfi to win @ 3.34 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ebolitana 1.2 – 1.1 Melfi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ebolitana hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 34% for Melfi.
Ebolitana have taken 4 points from their last 4 matches (1W 1D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per game. Melfi have 4 points from their last 4 (1W 1D 2L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.2 for Ebolitana, 1.1 for Melfi). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.30. For a bigger price, Melfi to win at 3.34 is our value angle (34% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ebolitana to win ✓ | 43% | 2.30 | 2.16 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.98 | 1.89 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.32 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ebolitana / FT Ebolitana ✗ | 23% | 4.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 12% | 8.01 | – |
Form
Ebolitana – last 4
| 20 Sep | @ Manfredonia | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Bisceglie | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Nardò | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Nocerina | 1–2 | L |
Melfi – last 4
| 20 Sep | vs Francavilla | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Nardò | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Virtus Francavilla | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Real Normanna | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ebolitana and Melfi.
Serie D Girone H table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Virtus Francavilla | 11 | +9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Martina Franca | 11 | +9 | 22 |
| 3 |  Brindisi | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gravina | 11 | +7 | 20 |
| 5 |  Turris | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Manfredonia | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 7 |  Gladiator | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 |  Fidelis Andria | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Bisceglie | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  USD Palmese | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Normanna | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Nocerina | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Real Forio 2014 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Melfi | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 |  Ebolitana | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Ischia | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Francavilla | 11 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 |  Nardò | 11 | -9 | 7 |
More Serie D Girone H predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ebolitana vs Melfi?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ebolitana vs Melfi?
On our numbers Ebolitana have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Melfi 34%.
How many goals will there be in Ebolitana vs Melfi?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Ebolitana vs Melfi?
Ebolitana vs Melfi (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.