Value bet: Montevarchi Calcio to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Donato Tavarnelle to win ✓40% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · fair 1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓10% · fair 10.18
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio preview and prediction
The match
San Donato Tavarnelle host Montevarchi Calcio in the Serie D Girone E on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT). San Donato Tavarnelle are 12th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Montevarchi Calcio sit 9th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
San Donato Tavarnelle's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Scandicci 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Montevarchi Calcio's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Grassina 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Montevarchi Calcio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for San Donato Tavarnelle and 1.3 for Montevarchi Calcio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Donato Tavarnelle 40%, draw 24%, Montevarchi Calcio 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Montevarchi Calcio to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: San Donato Tavarnelle 1–1 Montevarchi Calcio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Donato Tavarnelle40%fair 2.48 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.20
Montevarchi Calcio36%fair 2.80 · @3.10
2.63Expected goals
1.36San Donato Tavarnelle xG
1.27Montevarchi Calcio xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: San Donato Tavarnelle 1.4 – 1.3 Montevarchi Calcio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Donato Tavarnelle to win✓
40%
2.48
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.27
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.31
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Donato Tavarnelle / FT San Donato Tavarnelle✗
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
10%
10.18
–
Form
San Donato Tavarnelle – last 6
LWLDLL
25 Oct
@ Scandicci
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Tau Altopascio
1–0
W
11 Oct
@ Prato
0–2
L
4 Oct
vs Mezzolara
1–1
D
27 Sep
@ Flaminia
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Gavorrano
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Montevarchi Calcio – last 6
WWLLWL
25 Oct
vs Grassina
1–0
W
18 Oct
@ Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Rondinella
0–1
L
4 Oct
@ Ternana
1–4
L
27 Sep
vs Progresso
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Robur Siena
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Donato Tavarnelle and Montevarchi Calcio.
What is the prediction for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
On our numbers San Donato Tavarnelle have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Montevarchi Calcio 36%.
How many goals will there be in San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Our predicted score is San Donato Tavarnelle 1–1 Montevarchi Calcio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
