Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
O3.5
Value bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.55 – our chance 58% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +49%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFiorentina to win ✓67% · @1.26
Double chanceFiorentina or draw ✓87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @2.10
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓75% · @1.62
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗6% · fair 16.48
Fiorentina vs Benevento preview and prediction
The match
The Coppa Italia sees Fiorentina take on Benevento on Friday 14 August, kicking off at 20:15 (WAT) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Form guide
Fiorentina's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Benevento's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Ravenna 5–3 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.5 goals: 3.6 for Fiorentina and 1.9 for Benevento. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations.
Value angle: Over 3.5 goals at 2.55 – 58% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fiorentina 3–1 Benevento. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fiorentina67%fair 1.49 · @1.26
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @5.30
Benevento13%fair 7.61 · @11.00
5.51Expected goals
3.63Fiorentina xG
1.88Benevento xG
67%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–16%
3–26%
4–16%
4–25%
2–15%
2–25%
From our goals model: Fiorentina 3.6 – 1.9 Benevento expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fiorentina to win✓
67%
1.49
1.26
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.50
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.20 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.62 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
2.55 ▲
Half-time result
Fiorentina ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fiorentina / FT Fiorentina✓
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
6%
16.48
–
Form
Fiorentina – last 6
DDWLWW
6 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Real Madrid
2–2
D
29 Jul
@ Watford
1–0
W
25 Jul
@ QPR
2–3
L
22 Jul
vs Gubbio
1–0
W
19 Jul
vs Fiorentina U20
8–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Benevento – last 6
WDWWLW
9 Aug
vs Ravenna
5–3
W
1 Aug
@ Frosinone
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ Vis Pesaro
2–1
W
26 Jul
@ Ostia Mare
2–0
W
13 Apr
vs Cavese
0–1
L
6 Apr
@ Salernitana
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorentina and Benevento.
What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Benevento?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Benevento?
On our numbers Fiorentina have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Benevento 13%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Benevento?
We expect about 5.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Benevento?
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 3–1 Benevento, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.5 goals in total.
When is Fiorentina vs Benevento?
Fiorentina vs Benevento (Coppa Italia) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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