Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.83 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.83Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultExcelsior Maassluis to win ✓60% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.88
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB preview and prediction
The match
The Derde Divisie Saturday sees Excelsior Maassluis take on TOGB on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT). Excelsior Maassluis are 3rd with 26 points from 12 games (in the top four), while TOGB sit 12th on 12 points (in the top half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Excelsior Maassluis's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Vvsb 3–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
TOGB's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Roosendaal 4–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Excelsior Maassluis arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.1 for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.2 for TOGB. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Excelsior Maassluis to win – a 60% chance at odds of 1.83, above our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Excelsior Maassluis 2–1 TOGB. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Excelsior Maassluis60%fair 1.66 · @1.83
Draw17%fair 5.82 · @4.00
TOGB23%fair 4.40 · @3.10
3.30Expected goals
2.11Excelsior Maassluis xG
1.19TOGB xG
53%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Excelsior Maassluis 2.1 – 1.2 TOGB expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Excelsior Maassluis to win✓
60%
1.66
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.21
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Excelsior Maassluis ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excelsior Maassluis / FT Excelsior Maassluis✓
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Form
Excelsior Maassluis – last 6
WWWWWD
3 Oct
@ Vvsb
3–2
W
26 Sep
vs Blauw Geel
1–0
W
22 Sep
@ Sportlust '46
2–0
W
19 Sep
vs Roosendaal
5–0
W
12 Sep
@ Achilles Veen
3–2
W
5 Sep
vs Noordwijk
0–0
D
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
TOGB – last 6
WWLLLD
3 Oct
vs Roosendaal
4–3
W
26 Sep
@ Achilles Veen
1–0
W
23 Sep
vs ROHDA Raalte
4–6
L
19 Sep
vs Noordwijk
0–3
L
12 Sep
@ FC Lisse
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Groene Ster
3–3
D
2.3Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excelsior Maassluis and TOGB.
What is the prediction for Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?
Our pick is Excelsior Maassluis to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?
On our numbers Excelsior Maassluis have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 17% and TOGB 23%.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?
Our predicted score is Excelsior Maassluis 2–1 TOGB, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?
Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB (Derde Divisie Saturday) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
