Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultIllescas to win ✓62% · @1.75
Double chanceIllescas or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.47
Illescas vs Villarrubia preview and prediction
The match
Illescas host Villarrubia in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18 on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT). Illescas are 6th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Villarrubia sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Illescas's last 5: DDWLD Most recently they drew with Quintanar del Rey 2–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Villarrubia's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Villarrobledo 0–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Illescas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Illescas 0–0 Villarrubia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Illescas and 0.6 for Villarrubia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Illescas to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Illescas 1–0 Villarrubia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Illescas62%fair 1.60 · @1.75
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.10
Villarrubia13%fair 7.80 · @4.75
2.17Expected goals
1.60Illescas xG
0.57Villarrubia xG
48%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Illescas 1.6 – 0.6 Villarrubia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Illescas vs Villarrubia?
Our pick is Illescas to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Illescas vs Villarrubia?
On our numbers Illescas have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Villarrubia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Illescas vs Villarrubia?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Illescas vs Villarrubia?
Our predicted score is Illescas 1–0 Villarrubia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Illescas vs Villarrubia?
Illescas vs Villarrubia (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
