Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Gubbio to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGubbio to win ✓38% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 13.09
Pineto vs Gubbio preview and prediction
The match
The Coppa Italia Serie C sees Pineto take on Gubbio on Friday 14 August, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani.
Form guide
Pineto's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Atletico Ascoli 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Gubbio's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Sporting Trestina 2–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Gubbio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 April 2026, finished Gubbio 2–0 Pineto.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Pineto and 1.2 for Gubbio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pineto 37%, draw 25%, Gubbio 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Gubbio to win at 2.90 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Pineto 1–1 Gubbio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pineto37%fair 2.67 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Gubbio38%fair 2.63 · @2.90
2.29Expected goals
1.14Pineto xG
1.15Gubbio xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–010%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Pineto 1.1 – 1.2 Gubbio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Pineto vs Gubbio?
On our numbers Pineto have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gubbio 38%.
How many goals will there be in Pineto vs Gubbio?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pineto vs Gubbio?
Our predicted score is Pineto 1–1 Gubbio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Pineto vs Gubbio?
Pineto vs Gubbio (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
AZ Picerno2
Barletta1
Audace Cerignola1
SS Monopoli1
Casertana1
Savoia2
Grosseto2
Guidonia Montecelio 19373
PRO Vercelli1
Pergolettese1
Trento2
Ospitaletto1
Vado1
Inter U231