Value bet: Sorrento to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCavese to win ✗44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.68
Cavese vs Sorrento preview and prediction
The match
Sorrento travel to Stadio Simonetta Lamberti in the Serie C Girone C on Tuesday 15 September (20:00 WAT) to face Cavese. Cavese are 11th with 16 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Sorrento sit 9th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Cavese's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Cosenza 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Sorrento's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat AZ Picerno 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sorrento arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Cavese and 0.9 for Sorrento. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cavese 44%, draw 24%, Sorrento 33%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Sorrento to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Cavese 1–0 Sorrento. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cavese44%fair 2.29 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @2.80
Sorrento33%fair 3.07 · @3.50
2.00Expected goals
1.11Cavese xG
0.89Sorrento xG
49%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Cavese 1.1 – 0.9 Sorrento expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cavese to win✗
44%
2.29
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cavese / FT Cavese✗
23%
4.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.68
–
Form
Cavese – last 6
DDWLLW
12 Sep
@ Cosenza
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Salernitana
1–1
D
28 Aug
vs Audace Cerignola
3–1
W
21 Aug
@ Bari
0–3
L
15 Aug
@ Campobasso FC
0–2
L
6 Aug
@ Juve Stabia
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sorrento – last 6
WWWWWD
12 Sep
vs AZ Picerno
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ Giugliano
2–0
W
2 Sep
vs Cosenza
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Crotone
1–0
W
24 Aug
@ Salernitana
2–1
W
16 Aug
@ Giugliano
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cavese and Sorrento.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Cavese vs Sorrento?
On our numbers Cavese have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sorrento 33%.
How many goals will there be in Cavese vs Sorrento?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cavese vs Sorrento?
Our predicted score is Cavese 1–0 Sorrento, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Cavese vs Sorrento?
Cavese vs Sorrento (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Simonetta Lamberti.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
