Value bet: Reggiana to win @ 2.30 – our chance 49% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultReggiana to win ✗49% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.65
Perugia vs Reggiana preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone B sees Perugia take on Reggiana on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Stadio Renato Curi. Perugia are 12th with 17 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Reggiana sit 6th on 20 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Perugia's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Grosseto 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Reggiana's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Latina 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Reggiana arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.1 for Perugia and 1.6 for Reggiana. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Perugia 27%, draw 23%, Reggiana 49%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Reggiana to win at 2.30 – 49% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Perugia 1–1 Reggiana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Perugia27%fair 3.68 · @2.90
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @2.90
Reggiana49%fair 2.02 · @2.30
2.75Expected goals
1.13Perugia xG
1.62Reggiana xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Perugia 1.1 – 1.6 Reggiana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Reggiana to win✗
49%
2.02
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Reggiana / FT Reggiana✗
29%
3.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.65
–
Form
Perugia – last 6
LLLWDW
20 Sep
@ Grosseto
0–2
L
16 Sep
vs Spezia
0–3
L
13 Sep
@ Ravenna
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Pineto
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Vis Pesaro
2–2
D
23 Aug
vs Ostia Mare
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Reggiana – last 6
WWDWWD
20 Sep
vs Latina
1–0
W
16 Sep
@ Vis Pesaro
4–1
W
12 Sep
@ Guidonia Montecelio 1937
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Vado
3–1
W
30 Aug
@ Gubbio
2–1
W
24 Aug
vs Ravenna
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Perugia and Reggiana.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Perugia vs Reggiana?
On our numbers Perugia have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Reggiana 49%.
How many goals will there be in Perugia vs Reggiana?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Perugia vs Reggiana?
Our predicted score is Perugia 1–1 Reggiana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Perugia vs Reggiana?
Perugia vs Reggiana (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renato Curi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
