Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: River Plate to win @ 2.38 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiver Plate to win ✗47% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.79
Santa Fe vs River Plate preview and prediction
The match
Santa Fe host River Plate in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thursday 20 August, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT).
Form guide
Santa Fe's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Chico 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
River Plate's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Argentinos JRS 2–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Santa Fe arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.9 for Santa Fe and 1.3 for River Plate. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Fe 28%, draw 25%, River Plate 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Value angle: River Plate to win at 2.38 – 47% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Santa Fe 0–1 River Plate. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Fe28%fair 3.58 · @3.35
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @2.85
River Plate47%fair 2.12 · @2.38
2.15Expected goals
0.89Santa Fe xG
1.27River Plate xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Santa Fe 0.9 – 1.3 River Plate expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
River Plate to win✗
47%
2.12
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT River Plate / FT River Plate✗
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.79
–
Form
Santa Fe – last 6
WWDWLW
8 Aug
vs Chico
2–0
W
6 Aug
vs Union Magdalena
2–0
W
3 Aug
vs Once Caldas
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ Caracas FC
3–0
W
26 Jul
@ Águilas Doradas
1–2
L
24 Jul
vs Caracas FC
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
River Plate – last 6
WLLLLL
16 Aug
vs Argentinos JRS
2–0
W
8 Aug
@ Tigre
0–1
L
2 Aug
vs Rosario Central
0–1
L
29 Jul
@ Gimnasia L.P.
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs Barracas Central
0–1
L
18 Jul
vs Aldosivi
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Fe and River Plate.
What is the prediction for Santa Fe vs River Plate?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Santa Fe vs River Plate?
On our numbers Santa Fe have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 25% and River Plate 47%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Fe vs River Plate?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Fe vs River Plate?
Our predicted score is Santa Fe 0–1 River Plate, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Santa Fe vs River Plate?
Santa Fe vs River Plate (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Atletico Torque2
Tigre1
Macara0
Santos0
Olimpia1
Vasco DA Gama4