Value bet: Costa Brava to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantamarina to win ✗37% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.77
Santamarina vs Costa Brava preview and prediction
The match
The Torneo Federal A sees Santamarina take on Costa Brava on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin. Santamarina are 36th with 13 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Costa Brava sit 27th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Santamarina's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Juventud Unida Univ. 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Costa Brava's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Deportivo Rincon 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Costa Brava arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.9 for Santamarina and 0.9 for Costa Brava. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santamarina 37%, draw 26%, Costa Brava 36%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Costa Brava to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Santamarina 0–0 Costa Brava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santamarina37%fair 2.67 · @2.40
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @2.75
Costa Brava36%fair 2.75 · @3.00
1.84Expected goals
0.93Santamarina xG
0.91Costa Brava xG
47%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Santamarina 0.9 – 0.9 Costa Brava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santamarina to win✗
37%
2.67
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.77
–
Form
Santamarina – last 6
LWLWLL
6 Sep
@ Juventud Unida Univ.
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Circulo Deportivo
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Guillermo Brown
0–1
L
17 Aug
vs Fundacion Amigos
2–0
W
12 Aug
@ Germinal de Rawson
1–5
L
8 Aug
vs San Martín Mendoza
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Costa Brava – last 6
DLWWDD
6 Sep
@ Deportivo Rincon
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Juventud Unida Univ.
1–2
L
23 Aug
@ Circulo Deportivo
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Guillermo Brown
1–0
W
12 Aug
@ Fundacion Amigos
0–0
D
8 Aug
vs Germinal de Rawson
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santamarina and Costa Brava.
What is the prediction for Santamarina vs Costa Brava?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Santamarina vs Costa Brava?
On our numbers Santamarina have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Costa Brava 36%.
How many goals will there be in Santamarina vs Costa Brava?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santamarina vs Costa Brava?
Our predicted score is Santamarina 0–0 Costa Brava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Santamarina vs Costa Brava?
Santamarina vs Costa Brava (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
