Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDefensores de Vilelas to win ✓64% · @1.45
Double chanceDefensores de Vilelas or draw ✓85% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.38
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.06
Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy preview and prediction
The match
The Torneo Federal A sees Defensores de Vilelas take on Independiente De Chivilcoy on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio del Club Defensores De Vilelas. Defensores de Vilelas are 24th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Independiente De Chivilcoy sit 25th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Defensores de Vilelas's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Atletico Escobar 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Independiente De Chivilcoy's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat El Linqueño 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Defensores de Vilelas and 0.7 for Independiente De Chivilcoy. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Defensores de Vilelas 64%, draw 20%, Independiente De Chivilcoy 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.38.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.38 – 51% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Defensores de Vilelas 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensores de Vilelas64%fair 1.55 · @1.45
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.50
Independiente De Chivilcoy15%fair 6.50 · @7.00
2.38Expected goals
1.72Defensores de Vilelas xG
0.66Independiente De Chivilcoy xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Defensores de Vilelas 1.7 – 0.7 Independiente De Chivilcoy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensores de Vilelas to win✓
64%
1.55
1.45
Double chance
Defensores de Vilelas or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.38 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Defensores de Vilelas ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Defensores de Vilelas / FT Defensores de Vilelas✓
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.06
–
Form
Defensores de Vilelas – last 6
LDLWDW
7 Sep
@ Atletico Escobar
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs El Linqueño
0–0
D
16 Aug
@ Gimnasia Concepción
0–2
L
12 Aug
vs Tucuman Central
4–3
W
8 Aug
@ Sportivo Las Parejas
0–0
D
3 Aug
vs Sarmiento Resistencia
4–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente De Chivilcoy – last 6
WDWDLD
6 Sep
vs El Linqueño
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Gimnasia Concepción
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs Tucuman Central
2–0
W
16 Aug
@ Sportivo Las Parejas
0–0
D
12 Aug
vs Sarmiento Resistencia
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Boca Unidos
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensores de Vilelas and Independiente De Chivilcoy.
What is the prediction for Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
On our numbers Defensores de Vilelas have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Independiente De Chivilcoy 15%.
How many goals will there be in Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Our predicted score is Defensores de Vilelas 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio del Club Defensores De Vilelas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
