San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento de La Banda prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: San Martin Formosa to win @ 1.65 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Martin Formosa to win ✓65% · @1.65
Double chanceSan Martin Formosa or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.08
San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento de La Banda preview and prediction
The match
San Martin Formosa host Sarmiento de La Banda in the Torneo Federal A on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at 17 De Octubre. San Martin Formosa are 4th with 30 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Sarmiento de La Banda sit 13th on 25 points (in the top half).
Form guide
San Martin Formosa's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Defensores de Belgrano VR 0–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Sarmiento de La Banda's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to 9 de Julio Rafaela 1–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
San Martin Formosa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 July 2026, finished Sarmiento de La Banda 2–0 San Martin Formosa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for San Martin Formosa and 0.6 for Sarmiento de La Banda. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Martin Formosa 65%, draw 23%, Sarmiento de La Banda 13%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.57.
Value angle: San Martin Formosa to win at 1.65 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: San Martin Formosa 1–0 Sarmiento de La Banda. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Martin Formosa65%fair 1.55 · @1.65
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.30
Sarmiento de La Banda13%fair 7.86 · @4.75
2.36Expected goals
1.74San Martin Formosa xG
0.62Sarmiento de La Banda xG
47%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: San Martin Formosa 1.7 – 0.6 Sarmiento de La Banda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
On our numbers San Martin Formosa have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sarmiento de La Banda 13%.
How many goals will there be in San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
Our predicted score is San Martin Formosa 1–0 Sarmiento de La Banda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at 17 De Octubre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
