Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Germinal de Rawson to win @ 1.90 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGerminal de Rawson to win ✗59% · @1.90
Double chanceGerminal de Rawson or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.06
Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza preview and prediction
The match
Germinal de Rawson host San Martín Mendoza in the Torneo Federal A on Sunday 23 August, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio El Fortin. Germinal de Rawson are 30th with 18 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while San Martín Mendoza sit 23rd on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Germinal de Rawson's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Sol de Mayo 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
San Martín Mendoza's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Deportivo Rincon 1–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Martín Mendoza arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.3 for Germinal de Rawson and 0.6 for San Martín Mendoza. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Germinal de Rawson 59%, draw 21%, San Martín Mendoza 20%.
Safer route: Germinal de Rawson or draw (80%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Germinal de Rawson to win at 1.90 – 59% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Germinal de Rawson 1–0 San Martín Mendoza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Germinal de Rawson59%fair 1.70 · @1.90
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.00
San Martín Mendoza20%fair 5.07 · @4.00
1.91Expected goals
1.33Germinal de Rawson xG
0.58San Martín Mendoza xG
45%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
0–015%
2–013%
1–111%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Germinal de Rawson 1.3 – 0.6 San Martín Mendoza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Germinal de Rawson to win✗
59%
1.70
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Germinal de Rawson or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Germinal de Rawson / FT Germinal de Rawson✗
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.06
–
Form
Germinal de Rawson – last 6
LWDWLL
16 Aug
@ Sol de Mayo
0–1
L
12 Aug
vs Santamarina
5–1
W
8 Aug
@ Costa Brava
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Juventud Unida Univ.
2–1
W
26 Jul
@ Guillermo Brown
0–2
L
12 Jul
vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Martín Mendoza – last 6
WWWDDD
16 Aug
vs Deportivo Rincon
1–0
W
13 Aug
vs Sol de Mayo
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Santamarina
1–0
W
2 Aug
vs Costa Brava
2–2
D
26 Jul
vs Argentino Monte Maíz
1–1
D
12 Jul
@ Fundacion Amigos
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Germinal de Rawson and San Martín Mendoza.
What is the prediction for Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
On our numbers Germinal de Rawson have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and San Martín Mendoza 20%.
How many goals will there be in Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
Our predicted score is Germinal de Rawson 1–0 San Martín Mendoza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Fortin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
