Value bet: Alvarado to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVilla Mitre to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.79
Villa Mitre vs Alvarado preview and prediction
The match
Villa Mitre host Alvarado in the Torneo Federal A on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio El Fortin. Villa Mitre are 16th with 23 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Alvarado sit 5th on 27 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Villa Mitre's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Olimpo Bahia Blanca 0–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alvarado's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Huracan Las Heras 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alvarado arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 June 2026, finished Villa Mitre 1–0 Alvarado.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.9 for Villa Mitre and 0.8 for Alvarado. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Villa Mitre 43%, draw 24%, Alvarado 33%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Alvarado to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Villa Mitre 0–0 Alvarado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Villa Mitre43%fair 2.32 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.75
Alvarado33%fair 3.06 · @3.50
1.69Expected goals
0.94Villa Mitre xG
0.75Alvarado xG
48%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–018%
1–017%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Villa Mitre 0.9 – 0.8 Alvarado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
On our numbers Villa Mitre have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alvarado 33%.
How many goals will there be in Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
Our predicted score is Villa Mitre 0–0 Alvarado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
Villa Mitre vs Alvarado (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Fortin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
