Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C · Portugal · Campo da Portela

UD da Serra

LDDWW
1–2
FT

Fátima

WDWLW

UD da Serra vs Fátima prediction & analysis

74%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.27 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.27Odds
1

Value bet: UD da Serra to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultUD da Serra to win ✗44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.22

Win chances

UD da Serra44%fair 2.29 · @2.45
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.18
Fátima35%fair 2.89 · @2.51
2.85Expected goals
1.52UD da Serra xG
1.32Fátima xG
61%Both score
51%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–07%

From our goals model: UD da Serra 1.5 – 1.3 Fátima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

UD da Serra hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 35% for Fátima.

UD da Serra have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Fátima have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.

We expect around 2.8 goals (1.5 for UD da Serra, 1.3 for Fátima). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 61%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.27 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, UD da Serra to win at 2.45 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultUD da Serra to win ✗44%2.292.45 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.281.24
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓61%1.651.73
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74%1.341.27
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓51%1.981.95
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓71%1.411.23
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗41%2.45–
Half-time / full-timeHT UD da Serra / FT UD da Serra ✗25%4.01–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.22–

Form

UD da Serra – last 6

LDDWWD
1 Nov@ Os Marialvas1–2L
25 Octvs Atlético Malveira1–1D
18 Oct@ Vitoria Setubal1–1D
11 Oct@ O Elvas2–1W
20 Sep@ Amora4–3W
13 Sepvs Mortágua1–1D
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Fátima – last 6

WDWLWL
1 Novvs Fazendense6–1W
25 Oct@ Sertanense2–2D
18 Octvs Academico Viseu1–0W
11 Octvs Nazarenos1–3L
20 Sepvs Vinhais4–1W
13 Sepvs Oliveira Hospital0–1L
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between UD da Serra and Fátima.

More Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C predictions

FT FC Alverca II3 O Elvas1 362440 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.24 ✗ FT Fazendense2 Nazarenos3 362341 GGBoth teams to score 62%@1.57 ✓ FT Naval 18930 Atlético Malveira2 382438 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.23 ✓ FT AD Nogueirense0 Mortágua0 332641 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 69%@1.38 ✗ FT Benfica Castelo Branco0 Os Marialvas3 172459 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.27 ✓ FT Sertanense1 Oliveira Hospital2 152460 2Oliveira Hospital to win 60%@1.86 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for UD da Serra vs Fátima?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.

Who will win UD da Serra vs Fátima?

On our numbers UD da Serra have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fátima 35%.

How many goals will there be in UD da Serra vs Fátima?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

When is UD da Serra vs Fátima?

UD da Serra vs Fátima (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo da Portela.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.