Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C · Portugal
Benfica Castelo Branco
Os Marialvas
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.27 · Won ✓
Value bet: Os Marialvas to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Benfica Castelo Branco 0.9 – 1.8 Os Marialvas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Os Marialvas shade it despite being away from home – 59% to win, against 17% for Benfica Castelo Branco.
Benfica Castelo Branco have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 per game. Os Marialvas have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. Os Marialvas come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (0.9 for Benfica Castelo Branco, 1.8 for Os Marialvas). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (12%), 0–2 (11%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.27 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Os Marialvas to win at 1.91 is our value angle (59% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Os Marialvas to win ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Os Marialvas or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.78 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | 1.27 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.24 |
| Half-time result | Os Marialvas ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Os Marialvas / FT Os Marialvas ✓ | 37% | 2.67 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.42 | – |
Form
Benfica Castelo Branco – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Atlético Malveira | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Oct | vs O Elvas | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Mortágua | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs AD Nogueirense | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ FC Alverca II | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Fátima | 1–3 | L |
Os Marialvas – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs UD da Serra | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ Fazendense | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | @ Chaves | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Sertanense | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Ovarense | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Nazarenos | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica Castelo Branco and Os Marialvas.
More Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C predictions
FC Alverca II3
O Elvas1
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
74%@1.24
✗
FT
Fazendense2
Nazarenos3
GGBoth teams to score
62%@1.57
✓
FT
Naval 18930
Atlético Malveira2
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
74%@1.23
✓
FT
AD Nogueirense0
Mortágua0
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
69%@1.38
✗
FT
Sertanense1
Oliveira Hospital2
2Oliveira Hospital to win
60%@1.86
✓
FT
UD da Serra1
Fátima2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
74%@1.27
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
On our numbers Benfica Castelo Branco have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Os Marialvas 59%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.