Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C · Portugal
AD Nogueirense
Mortágua
AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.44 · bookmaker 1.38 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.88 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AD Nogueirense 1.2 – 1.4 Mortágua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mortágua shade it despite being away from home – 41% to win, against 33% for AD Nogueirense.
AD Nogueirense have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Mortágua have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.2 for AD Nogueirense, 1.4 for Mortágua). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.38 is close to our fair price of 1.44. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.88 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mortágua to win ✗ | 41% | 2.44 | 2.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 74% | 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.88 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.56 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua ✗ | 24% | 4.21 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 9.71 | – |
Form
AD Nogueirense – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Oliveira Hospital | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ FC Alverca II | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Naval 1893 | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Benfica Castelo Branco | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs UD da Serra | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Naval 1893 | 1–1 | D |
Mortágua – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs FC Alverca II | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ Naval 1893 | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Benfica Castelo Branco | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Leça | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ UD da Serra | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Fazendense | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Nogueirense and Mortágua.
More Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C predictions
FC Alverca II3
O Elvas1
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
74%@1.24
✗
FT
Fazendense2
Nazarenos3
GGBoth teams to score
62%@1.57
✓
FT
Naval 18930
Atlético Malveira2
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
74%@1.23
✓
FT
Benfica Castelo Branco0
Os Marialvas3
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
74%@1.27
✓
FT
Sertanense1
Oliveira Hospital2
2Oliveira Hospital to win
60%@1.86
✓
FT
UD da Serra1
Fátima2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
74%@1.27
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
On our numbers AD Nogueirense have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Mortágua 41%.
How many goals will there be in AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.