Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultOs Marialvas to win ✗68% · @1.62
Double chanceOs Marialvas or draw ✓89% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.28
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense preview and prediction
The match
Sertanense travel to face Os Marialvas in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C on Sunday 11 October (15:00 WAT). Os Marialvas are 1st with 19 points from 8 games (top of the table), while Sertanense sit 13th on 5 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Os Marialvas's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Ovarense 1–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sertanense's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to O Elvas 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Os Marialvas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Os Marialvas and 0.6 for Sertanense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 43%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Os Marialvas 68%, draw 22%, Sertanense 11%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Os Marialvas to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Os Marialvas 1–0 Sertanense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Os Marialvas68%fair 1.48 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.40
Sertanense11%fair 9.47 · @5.00
2.46Expected goals
1.87Os Marialvas xG
0.59Sertanense xG
43%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–015%
1–19%
3–09%
2–19%
0–09%
From our goals model: Os Marialvas 1.9 – 0.6 Sertanense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Os Marialvas to win✗
68%
1.48
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Os Marialvas or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Os Marialvas ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Os Marialvas / FT Os Marialvas✗
44%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.28
–
Form
Os Marialvas – last 6
WWWWLW
20 Sep
@ Ovarense
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Nazarenos
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Fátima
3–0
W
30 Aug
@ AD Fornos Algodres
4–0
W
23 Aug
vs Oliveira Hospital
1–2
L
16 Aug
@ Atlético Malveira
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sertanense – last 5
LDLLD
27 Sep
@ O Elvas
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Atlético Malveira
1–1
D
30 Aug
@ Alcains
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Mortágua
1–3
L
16 Aug
@ AD Nogueirense
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Os Marialvas and Sertanense.
What is the prediction for Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
Our pick is Os Marialvas to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
On our numbers Os Marialvas have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sertanense 11%.
How many goals will there be in Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
Our predicted score is Os Marialvas 1–0 Sertanense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
